2026 CFP Eliminator · Snapshot Oct 20 · Not live

SMU’s road to the CFP

CHAOS REQUIRED · Difficulty #28 of 44

Explore the full interactive path →Download share graphic ↓

What SMU needs

Needs 5 more regular-season wins. Current record 5–1; estimated minimum 10 wins.

10-24Win vs. California
10-31Win at Syracuse
11-06Win vs. Virginia Tech
11-14Win vs. Wake Forest
11-21Loss at Notre Dame
11-28Win at Stanford

And some help elsewhere

16 modeled favorite reversals in games not involving SMU.

10-31Wisconsin over Iowa
11-07Alabama over LSU
11-07BYU over Utah
11-07Georgia over Ole Miss
11-07Missouri over Texas
11-14Michigan over Oregon
11-14Oklahoma over Ole Miss
11-14Oregon State over Boise State
11-14Arizona over Utah
11-21Kansas State over Arizona

And 6 more favorite reversals in the complete scenario.

The path is the most likely single complete set of remaining results that satisfies our editorial minimum-win and 12-seat scenario constraints. Its difficulty ranking is relative to the other 43 teams under this same model, not an estimate of actual CFP selection probability. Automatic bids, Notre Dame's top-12 exception, and the selection committee are not fully modeled. October 20, 2026 data snapshot.