2026 CFP Eliminator · Snapshot Oct 20 · Not live

Oregon’s road to the CFP

A FEW HURDLES · Difficulty #18 of 44

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What Oregon needs

Needs 5 more regular-season wins. Current record 4–2; estimated minimum 9 wins.

10-24Win at Illinois
10-31Win vs. Northwestern
11-07Loss at Ohio State
11-14Win vs. Michigan
11-20Win at Michigan State
11-28Win vs. Washington

And some help elsewhere

16 modeled favorite reversals in games not involving Oregon.

10-24Auburn over LSU
10-31Wisconsin over Iowa
11-07BYU over Utah
11-07Georgia over Ole Miss
11-07Missouri over Texas
11-14Mississippi State over Auburn
11-14Oklahoma over Ole Miss
11-14Oregon State over Boise State
11-14Arizona over Utah
11-21Kansas State over Arizona

And 6 more favorite reversals in the complete scenario.

The path is the most likely single complete set of remaining results that satisfies our editorial minimum-win and 12-seat scenario constraints. Its difficulty ranking is relative to the other 43 teams under this same model, not an estimate of actual CFP selection probability. Automatic bids, Notre Dame's top-12 exception, and the selection committee are not fully modeled. October 20, 2026 data snapshot.