2026 CFP Eliminator · Snapshot Oct 20 · Not live

James Madison’s road to the CFP

LEAST CHAOTIC ROUTE · Difficulty #1 of 44

James Madison modeled CFP path share card

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What James Madison needs

Must win out. Current record 7–0; estimated minimum 12 wins.

10-22Win at Appalachian State
10-29Win vs. Troy
11-05Win at Southern Miss
11-14Win at UConn
11-28Win vs. Coastal Carolina

And some help elsewhere

15 modeled favorite reversals in games not involving James Madison.

10-31Wisconsin over Iowa
11-07Alabama over LSU
11-07BYU over Utah
11-07Georgia over Ole Miss
11-07Missouri over Texas
11-14Michigan over Oregon
11-14Oklahoma over Ole Miss
11-14Oregon State over Boise State
11-14Arizona over Utah
11-21Kansas State over Arizona

And 5 more favorite reversals in the complete scenario.

The path is the most likely single complete set of remaining results that satisfies our editorial minimum-win and 12-seat scenario constraints. Its difficulty ranking is relative to the other 43 teams under this same model, not an estimate of actual CFP selection probability. Automatic bids, Notre Dame's top-12 exception, and the selection committee are not fully modeled. October 20, 2026 data snapshot.