2026 CFP Eliminator · Snapshot Oct 20 · Not live

Duke’s road to the CFP

FULL-ON MAYHEM · Difficulty #41 of 44

Explore the full interactive path →Download share graphic ↓

What Duke needs

Must win out. Current record 4–2; estimated minimum 10 wins.

10-23Win at Virginia
10-31Win vs. Boston College
11-07Win at NC State
11-14Win at Miami (FL)
11-20Win vs. Clemson
11-28Win at Wake Forest

And some help elsewhere

18 modeled favorite reversals in games not involving Duke.

10-31North Carolina over Miami (FL)
11-06Virginia Tech over SMU
11-07Alabama over LSU
11-07BYU over Utah
11-07Georgia over Ole Miss
11-07Iowa over Northwestern
11-07Missouri over Texas
11-14Louisville over North Carolina
11-14Michigan over Oregon
11-14Oklahoma over Ole Miss

And 8 more favorite reversals in the complete scenario.

The path is the most likely single complete set of remaining results that satisfies our editorial minimum-win and 12-seat scenario constraints. Its difficulty ranking is relative to the other 43 teams under this same model, not an estimate of actual CFP selection probability. Automatic bids, Notre Dame's top-12 exception, and the selection committee are not fully modeled. October 20, 2026 data snapshot.