2026 CFP Eliminator · Snapshot Oct 20 · Not live

Boise State’s road to the CFP

A FEW HURDLES · Difficulty #18 of 44

Explore the full interactive path →Download share graphic ↓

What Boise State needs

Must win out. Current record 5–1; estimated minimum 11 wins.

10-24Win at Washington State
10-31Win vs. Texas State
11-07Win at Colorado State
11-14Win vs. Oregon State
11-21Win vs. San Diego State
11-28Win at Pac-12 flex opponent (TBD)

And some help elsewhere

15 modeled favorite reversals in games not involving Boise State.

10-31Wisconsin over Iowa
11-07Alabama over LSU
11-07BYU over Utah
11-07Georgia over Ole Miss
11-07Missouri over Texas
11-14UConn over James Madison
11-14Michigan over Oregon
11-14Oklahoma over Ole Miss
11-14Arizona over Utah
11-21Kansas State over Arizona

And 5 more favorite reversals in the complete scenario.

The path is the most likely single complete set of remaining results that satisfies our editorial minimum-win and 12-seat scenario constraints. Its difficulty ranking is relative to the other 43 teams under this same model, not an estimate of actual CFP selection probability. Automatic bids, Notre Dame's top-12 exception, and the selection committee are not fully modeled. October 20, 2026 data snapshot.