2026 CFP Eliminator · Snapshot Oct 20 · Not live

Alabama’s road to the CFP

LEAST CHAOTIC ROUTE · Difficulty #1 of 44

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What Alabama needs

Needs 4 more regular-season wins. Current record 5–2; estimated minimum 9 wins.

10-24Win vs. Texas A&M
11-07Win at LSU
11-14Win at Vanderbilt
11-21Win vs. Chattanooga
11-28Win vs. Auburn

And some help elsewhere

14 modeled favorite reversals in games not involving Alabama.

10-31Wisconsin over Iowa
11-07BYU over Utah
11-07Georgia over Ole Miss
11-07Missouri over Texas
11-14Michigan over Oregon
11-14Oklahoma over Ole Miss
11-14Oregon State over Boise State
11-14Arizona over Utah
11-21Kansas State over Arizona
11-21Missouri over Kentucky

And 4 more favorite reversals in the complete scenario.

The path is the most likely single complete set of remaining results that satisfies our editorial minimum-win and 12-seat scenario constraints. Its difficulty ranking is relative to the other 43 teams under this same model, not an estimate of actual CFP selection probability. Automatic bids, Notre Dame's top-12 exception, and the selection committee are not fully modeled. October 20, 2026 data snapshot.